2/13/2023 0 Comments Plutocracy trumpMany of these people believe in Trump blindly, almost in a religion-esque way. It proves that the influence of the former president is very strong among the hardcore GOP members, the most common group to participate in the partisan primary elections. Trump has backed over 200 candidates in this election cycle, of which about 180 have won. This continues the pattern of victory of Trump-endorsed Republicans in the primaries. Meanwhile, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who also has Trump's endorsement, advanced to Alaska's general election. Nouriel Roubini is chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates and professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, NYU.Donald Trump Photo:VCGOn Tuesday night local time, Liz Cheney, a Wyoming Representative and an outspoken critic of former US president Donald Trump, lost her Republican primary to Trump-backed Harriet Hageman, ending her trip to the congressional midterm elections. There’s no reason to think they would stop now. Pluto-populists have been turning democracies into autocracies with the same playbook for thousands of years. And if you’re not convinced, consider the recent history of Russia or Turkey or the history of the Roman empire under Caligula or Nero. You know it’s time to worry when the conservative Republican chairman of the Senate committee on foreign relations, Bob Corker, warns openly that Trump could start World War III. With dozens, if not hundreds, slain, Trump could then wrap himself in the flag and say, “I told you so." That would increase the likelihood of ISIS-inspired attacks-for example, “lone wolves" blowing themselves up or driving trucks through crowded pedestrian areas-within the US. Or he could post further inflammatory tweets about the evils of Islam, thereby driving disturbed and marginalized individuals into the arms of the Islamic State (ISIS) or other extremist groups. Namely, he can try to “wag the dog," by fabricating an external threat or embarking on foreign military adventures to distract his supporters from what he and congressional Republicans have been doing.įor example, following the “madman" approach to foreign policy, Trump could start a war with North Korea or Iran. ![]() That could mean truly withdrawing from Nafta, taking trade action against China and other trading partners, or doubling down on harsh immigration policies.Īnd if these measures do not satisfy his base, Trump will still have one last option. But if gassy rhetoric alone does not suffice, he may decide to go on the offensive, particularly in the international sphere. Whatever happens, Trump will continue to tweet maniacally. A potential growth rate of 2% won’t necessarily do much to help his blue-collar base, but at least it could push the stock market up to its highest point ever. With the global economy expanding, Trump is probably hoping that tax cuts and deregulation will spur enough growth and create enough jobs that he will have something to brag about. Millions of the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who voted for Trump also rely on these and similar programmes. And they can expect to see the economic stimulus effects of tax cuts peak in 2019, just before the next presidential election.Īnother part of the Republican strategy will be to use the higher deficits from tax cuts to argue for cuts in so-called entitlement spending, such as Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, and social security. Between now and the midterms, they can brag about cutting taxes on most households. After all, by pushing the middle-class tax hikes to a later date, they have designed their plan to get them through the 2018 midterm elections and the 2020 general election. ![]() Nevertheless, Trump and the Republicans seem willing to risk it. According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, this will cause 13 million people to lose health insurance, and insurance premiums to rise by 10%, over the next decade. Moreover, the Republican plan would repeal the Obamacare individual mandate. Why has his base let him get away with pursuing policies that hurt them? According to one view, he is betting that social conservatives and white blue-collar supporters in rural areas will vote on the basis of nationalist and religious sentiment and antipathy towards coastal elites, rather than for their own financial interests.īut how long can anyone be expected to support “God and guns" at the expense of “bread and butter"? The tax legislation that Republicans have rushed through Congress could prove especially dangerous, given that millions of middle-class and low-income households will not only get little out of it, but will actually pay more when income-tax cuts are phased out over time. Likewise, despite Trump’s aggressive rhetoric on immigration, his policies have been relatively moderate, perhaps because many of the businesspeople who supported his campaign actually favour a milder approach.
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